SignalHub-Florida State can't afford to fire Mike Norvell -- and can't afford to keep him

They’ve hit a unique inflection point at Florida State with coach Mike Norvell,SignalHub one that perfectly and terrifyingly explains the transactional state of college football.  

Can’t afford to fire him, can’t can’t afford to keep him.

“We can’t get caught up in what happened yesterday,” Norvell said last week. “Other than to learn from it.”

Welcome, everyone, to the excruciating financial reality of choices have consequences. 

They’re feeling it at Florida State and Florida. At Auburn and Oklahoma, and Wisconsin and Southern California. And even Michigan, less than a year after winning the national title. 

Bloated, guaranteed coaching contracts don’t translate to success. 

Nowhere is this undeniable truth more prevalent than at Florida State — because of its unique connection to the new era of player procurement. 

The highs of hitting it big in the transfer portal, and the ugly lows when swinging and missing.

This time last season, Florida State was polishing off a 19-game winning streak, and would become the focal point of the sport after missing out on the College Football Playoff.

Then Nick Saban retired at Alabama, and Norvell may or may not have been an Alabama candidate. So Florida State did what just about any university in the same situation would do: it threw a boatload of long-term, guaranteed cash at Norvell to convince him to stay. 

Now that cash – an estimated $64 million in buyout money – is an anvil around the neck of the program. Because the coach who had the transfer portal figured out, who embraced the new shortcut to winning like no other and had high-level success doing so, has failed miserably a year later. 

And by miserable, I mean the worst season for the Seminoles since 1974. In fact, only two in school history have been worse.

It’s not often we get to see both the spoils and ills of the transfer portal play out in front of us, a train wreck we vicariously can’t turn from. It’s an unmistakable teaching moment for all involved.

It wasn’t so long ago that Norvell had FSU officials convinced talent was fungible and readily available in the transfer portal. That building a program organically through high school recruiting and development of players through program experience was overrated.

Now here we are: the Seminoles have lost 9 of 10 games this season (and should’ve lost the game it won), and Norvell last weekend fired his offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and wide receivers coach.

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He says everything and everyone will be evaluated, and nothing will go unchecked in finding FSU’s way back. Here’s a start: evaluate the evaluators.

At some point at the end of the 2023 regular season, with the Seminoles sitting at 13-0 and full of momentum, the decision was made to sign nomadic quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei.

Of all the quarterbacks in the portal, of all the potential options to limit the falloff from electric star Jordan Travis, Norvell chose Uiagalelei and made the worst possible decision at the worst possible time. He needed game-changer, and signed a game manager.

But it wasn’t just the most important position on the field.

Norvell mistakenly bought into his own magic, knowing full well that a majority of the players in the transfer portal are the unloved and unwanted — or those looking for a one-year payday before heading the NFL. 

There are only so many players like Braden Fiske and Keon Coleman, and Tatum Bethune and Jared Verse. At some point, you’re going to run into DJ Uiagalelei and Malik Benson, and Richie Leonard and Marvin Jones Jr. 

At some point, a head coach and a staff begin to believe they can change and develop any player, and the administration at those schools believe the same. That echo chamber then drowns out the inherent risk of building through the portal. 

And the next thing you know, you’re burning through coaching contracts to make it work. Florida State owes $8.5 million on the contracts of offensive coordinator Alex Atkins, defensive coordinator Adam Fuller and wide receivers coach Ron Dugans.

But it’s cheaper to fire three assistant coaches than admit a mistake and lay out $64 million for the head coach.

Think about what has transpired at Florida State since Travis broke his leg and dislocated his ankle a year ago this week. 

⬣ A 19-game winning streak was snapped, and the Seminoles became the first unbeaten Power Five conference champion to not make the CFP field.

⬣ Lost by 60 to Georgia in the Orange Bowl with a roster depleted by opt outs.  

⬣ Norvell’s contract was extended to $10 million annually through 2031. 

⬣ Lost 10 of 11 games by an average of 23 points per game.

⬣ Fired its offensive and defensive coordinators after a 49-point loss at Notre Dame.

⬣ Wildly misjudged the Big Ten’s interest.

Everything that could go wrong, has gone wrong in every imaginable way — despite the red flag popping in the wind of change.  

Someone at FSU should’ve watched the Orange Bowl with a critical eye, instead of a bitter gaze. A majority of the opt-outs for the Seminoles were successful transfer portal players.

Translation: the team that sustained the worst bowl loss in school history was the foundation for 2024, with the exception of a freshman recruiting class and more heavy (and risky) lifting in the transfer portal.

Hit in the portal, continue the climb. Lose in the portal, prepare for the disaster. 

The teaching moment has arrived. Who will listen?

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.